30 Mar '15, 9pm

Small steps to better forecasts and transport models | Campaign For Better Transport via @cbtransport

Small steps to better forecasts and transport models | Campaign For Better Transport via @cbtransport

The Department for Transport's new Road Traffic Forecasts have been published, and we're pleased to see a few steps towards the 'scenario' approach we have been advocating for a long time, alongside many academics and experts. "There is inevitable uncertainty in any projection. A useful approach is to adopt scenarios, rather than a central case with sensitivities. One scenario might correspond to the Department’s central case. Another might reflect the peak car perspective." Dr David Metz, former Chief Scientist to the Department for Transport, in evidence to the Transport Committee , Oct 2013 The DfT hasn't wholeheartedly embraced the concept. Instead of looking at the way a range of factors might interact (including Government policies) to cause different traffic levels in future, the changes made are more like a simple 'sensitivity test' of a couple of variables. Howeve...

Full article: http://bettertransport.org.uk/blog/roads/190315-new-traff...

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